Plan It Calgary, the city’s long-range planning blueprint, will almost certainly be in for a rough ride once it reaches city council in June. (See story here, and council members' comments here.)

Over the past couple weeks I’ve spoken with every council member about the Plan It draft (except Ald. Diane Colley-Urquhart — see past post). A couple aldermen indicated that they plan to vote against it (Ray Jones and Jim Stevenson). Others are clearly unhappy with the plan (Dale Hodges, Andre Chabot, Ric McIver and Linda-Fox-Mellway). I don’t know Colley-Urquhart’s thoughts, but she hasn’t exactly showered the plan with praise in other media.

There are only a handful of clear supporters of the plan (Druh Farrell, Joe Ceci and Brian Pincott).

Then there’s a quartet of aldermen in the mealy-mouthed middle — Gord Lowe, Bob Hawkesworth, Joe Connelly (who, to be fair, seems pretty unimpressed by the plan) and John Mar.

As for the mayor, he says the “foundational work” of the plan is “headed in the right direction.” But Bronco also says the plan isn’t “etched in stone” and that city council will “refine the plans if refinements are required.”

Let’s look at the numbers. Let’s be generous and say that Farrell, Ceci, Pincott, Hawkesworth, Mar and Bronco all vote to implement Plan It. That’s six votes, and there are 15 votes on council. The supporters could be easily outnumbered nine to six.

Or look at it this way. Stevenson, Jones, Hodges, Connelly, Chabot, McIver and Fox-Mellway will clearly need a lot of convincing if they’re going to vote in favour of the plan. (I’m guessing Colley-Urquhart falls into this group too, but let’s be conservative and assume she’s undecided.) That’s seven votes. They only need to sway one more council member to have the commanding eight votes they need to spike the plan. Of course, it’s likely that the plan won't be spiked, but significantly amended or sent back to administration or who knows what else after the June 16 public hearing.

In any case, the future doesn’t look very bright for Plan It.