Genevieve Simms

In the days leading up to last week’s U.S. presidential election, I became increasingly concerned by media reports that Republican John McCain was, against all odds, closing the gap between himself and Democrat Barack Obama. Even on election night it looked possible, if only for awhile, that the 72-year-old senator from Arizona and his unlikely shotgun partner from Alaska might pull off a dramatic victory.

By the end, of course, it wasn’t even close. Obama won by a margin of six percentage points in the popular vote — a massive lead in historical perspective — and secured more than twice as many electoral votes as McCain. What’s more, with the Senate and House of Representatives once more firmly in the Democratic camp, this election represented a rout for the Republicans and a complete repudiation of George W. Bush’s eight-year presidency.

Where does this leave everyone now? Or more specifically, what are the implications of this result for the Republican Party, the Democrats and America’s neighbour and ally, Canada?

In one sense, this was an election that the Republicans had to lose if they were to rebuild for the future. Bush is so hated, that any Republican successor would inevitably have been tainted and shackled by his legacy. It’s tempting to buy into the conspiracy theory that the GOP honchos deliberately threw this election. How else to explain their choice of McCain, a loose cannon at best, and their outrageous selection of Sarah Palin, someone who defied parody and with every public utterance paraded her inadequacy to be one death away from leading the world’s sole superpower?

Yet the McCain-Palin ticket did appeal to millions of American voters and came close to spoiling Obama’s destiny. What would a McCain presidency have looked like? We got a brief but ugly glimpse when he gave his concession speech. As he delivered his most eloquent and gracious address of the entire campaign, news cameras panned across his supporters to capture the angry, sullen faces of white Americans who refused to accept defeat in like manner, instead booing every reference to Obama. Here was the true face of Joe the Plumber.

And here, too, is the challenge now facing the Republican Party. If they’re to regroup themselves as a credible electoral alternative to the Democrats in 2012, they need to move beyond their current base of support. The motley crew of constitutional libertarians, anti-taxers, anti-feminists, fifth-generation confederates and outright racists that rallied around McCain this time will surely not deliver victory four years from now.

A quick look at the electoral map after last week shows that Republican support is now concentrated more than ever in the American Midwest and former southern slave states — areas from which people are leaving in droves to the northeast and far west. In this respect, it was only fitting that the entertainer hired to jolly up McCain’s supporters on election night was Hank Williams Jr., an archaic symbol of a bygone era.

On the upside, the fact remains that this was a far closer race than it should have been, certainly far closer than anyone would have predicted even a year ago. Obama ran against the legacy of a president with low popular support, an opponent who had secured his party’s nomination more by default than with enthusiasm, and against the backdrop of a financial crisis that could clearly be linked to the previous administration’s pathological aversion to regulating any aspect of the economy. If the Republicans can learn the lessons of this defeat, acknowledge the brilliant campaign ran by the Obama Democrats, build a new base of support that does not pander to Second Amendment crazies and, above all, resist the “Sarah for 2012” movement, then there’s no reason to believe that they cannot reassert themselves as a viable option for American voters.

For the Democrats, the rise of Obama from almost nowhere was almost messianic in character. His unrelenting coolness under pressure, his refusal to be dragged down to the gutter-level attacks of his opponents and, above all, his articulation of a future that all Americans could embrace will rightly go down as a turning point in American political history. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t shed a tear as I watched his acceptance speech, moved more by the sheer grace and eloquence of the man than by any partisan loyalty.

Yet Obama’s (and the Democrats’) problems are the mirror image of those facing the Republicans. Yes, it was a historic victory, but Obama should have won by an even greater margin. This time he benefited from the perfect storm of Bush, Palin and an avoidable economic meltdown. Four years from now, he’ll have none of these advantages if he hopes for a second term. Between now and then, he’ll have to overcome the massive legacy of Bush both at home and abroad: namely, a deficit of Third World proportions, a depression-scale recession and two wars that are going nowhere.

Just where Canada fits in the vision of an Obama-led America remains to be seen. What seems clear already, however, is that a strengthened U.S. economy and the redemption of America’s reputation abroad will serve Canada well in the long run. After all, they’re the only neighbour we have.

So, welcome back, America. It’s been too long.