Genevieve Simms

Looks like we are not going to have a provincial election this fall after all. There’s just not enough time between now and Christmas to fit it in. The sound you hear is the Liberals breathing a huge sigh of relief. They were not ready. A quick election call would have brought on chaos in the ranks and sure defeat.

But an election in the spring might well present a different ending to the story. For the Liberals are gaining momentum — particularly in Calgary. It’s not showing up in public opinion polls, but it’s quite evident among Liberal supporters. At a small fundraiser for female Liberal candidates a couple of weeks ago, there was so much enthusiasm bouncing around the room it looked like everyone was on helium.

Nominated candidates and those seeking a nomination actually want to run because they believe they have a good shot at winning. This is different from past practise when Liberal candidates ran more out of duty to the party than because they had any real expectation of winning. Ralph Klein’s coattails were just too broad; his iconic status in Calgary could sweep in almost any Tory candidate even if most voters had never heard of that person before.

But Ralph is gone. And that means all candidates have to stand on their own merits rather than their association with the party or party leader. In Calgary that has opened up the field immensely, and the Liberals have been making hay in that new playing field as fast as they can.

They have managed to attract some interesting candidates with strong local credentials. His work in the Lakeview community on various issues certainly helped Craig Cheffins win Ralph’s old seat in Calgary Elbow. Sure, a lot of Tories stayed home rather than vote, but Cheffins was also able to assemble a strong, motivated campaign team, and that counts for a lot during an election campaign.

Since the Cheffins victory, several surprising candidates have come forward. Mike Robinson, the current president and CEO of the Glenbow Museum and an energetic public figure in Calgary, has indicated he will seek the Liberal nomination in Calgary-Foothills. Cathie Williams, former chair of the Catholic school board, is seeking the nomination in Calgary-Edgemont. Greg Flanagan, an economist and founding member of the Parkland Institute, wants to be the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Bow.

So far, only about half the constituencies in the city have active Liberal candidates. Avalon Roberts, former chair of Friends of Medicare, is running in Calgary-Glenmore. She has fought two losing campaigns already but is raring to go again. Kent Hehr is running in the inner-city constituency of Calgary-Buffalo. Buffalo has long been kind to Liberals, and judging from the number of people who stopped by to talk with the young and personable lawyer at the Kensington Sun and Salsa Festival last summer, Hehr has a good shot at bringing Buffalo back into the fold.

Darshan Kang is running again for the Liberals in the northeast constituency of Calgary-McCall. He ran last time around and lost by only 304 votes — this will certainly be a race to watch. Pat Murray is taking a second run in Calgary-North Hill. He lost by about 1,000 votes during the 2004 vote. But Richard Magnus, the Tory incumbent, is retiring, so Murray has a much better chance of getting elected in 2008.

Of course, it’s not a given that the four Liberal incumbents in Calgary will retain their seats. The Tories are gunning for Dave Taylor, who won by only 500 votes in 2004 in Calgary-Currie. They’ve been touting Arthur Kent, the famous “scud stud,” as the candidate (nomination meeting is set for November 17). Kent has a solid reputation as an intrepid foreign correspondent, but who knew he was interested in Alberta politics?

Former alderman Barry Erskine was set to run for the Conservative nomination against Craig Cheffins in Calgary-Elbow, but he missed the deadline for filing his nomination papers. Sounds like the Tories are as disorganized as the Liberals at this stage of the game. Name recognition would certainly have helped Erskine, but no doubt the Tories will fight hard to win back this seat in the heart of Calgary. David Swann in Calgary-Mountain View has the only safe Liberal seat — he won by an astounding 3,000 votes in 2004 against Tory incumbent Mark Hlady.

All kinds of things could eventually puncture ballooning Liberal hopes. Not everyone in the party is happy with the performance of leader Kevin Taft. After Premier Ed Stelmach announced his plan for raising royalties, I heard people inside and outside the party complain that Taft should have been able to deliver a knockout punch at that point, but he didn’t. And then of course there are the festering Calgary-Edmonton resentments: Calgary Liberals don’t want “Edmonton” telling them what to do and how to do it. And let’s not forget, Calgary’s Conservative roots are very deep; it’s not easy to persuade people to pull them up and vote Liberal.

But perhaps, just perhaps, the next provincial election may feature some really tight races in Calgary. It may not be as predictable as it has been. That in itself would be a welcome change. Boring elections breed apathy and apathy leads to arrogant government. And we’ve definitely had enough of that.

Gillian Steward co-authored Clear Answers: The Economics and Politics of For-Profit Medicine with Kevin Taft in 2000, before he became a Liberal MLA.