For the last few weeks, I’ve been feeling as though I am living in a remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Every time I turn on the TV or go to an Internet news site I am faced with conservative politicians telling me that taxpayers have to buy into greedy investment banks or inject money into the “free” market. First it was President George W. Bush, and now even our own Conservatives — Stephen Harper and finance minister Jim Flaherty — are talking about backing up bank loans with taxpayers’ money. Harper has even said his government might have to run deficits if they want to keep the economy on an even keel. Who are these people, really?
Weren’t they the same ones who a few years ago were counselling every government in the universe to “unfetter” the market so it could bring prosperity to one and all? Weren’t they the same people who instructed governments to eliminate deficits and wipe out debt even if it meant cutting into beneficial social programs? Obviously, they have fallen prey to some alien force, because they are saying the exact opposite of what they used to say even though they are still wearing the same suits and ties.
As we all remember, Alberta actually led the way in Canada when it came to instilling fear about deficit and debt, thanks to Preston Manning, Ralph Klein and assorted cheerleaders from the ranks of big business. I am all for fiscally responsible government but, in hindsight, it’s clear that campaign was more of a political gimmick than a necessity. Especially in light of soaring oil prices over the last decade.
Oil prices, and lots of other economic indicators, are now sliding fast. Premier Ed Stelmach must be thanking his lucky stars that he is safely ensconced in office for another four years. And Stephen Harper with his new and much more muscular minority must also be breathing a sigh of relief. For, during recessions, voters tend to get angry and frustrated with their political leaders. Even in Alberta.
It may seem like ancient history now, but the last time the opposition made significant gains against the Alberta Tories was in 1989 and 1993 when the price of oil had tanked and Albertans were having to deal with really tough times. In 1993, the Liberals, under the leadership of former Edmonton mayor Laurence Decore, won 32 seats.
Of course, Klein was elected premier for the first time that year, and the Liberals soon faded into obscurity. However, it’s curious that only 10 years after the much-hated National Energy Program imposed on Alberta by the Trudeau Liberals, 40 per cent of Albertans were willing to vote Liberal. If anything, it speaks to how angry they were about the performance of the Conservatives under Don Getty in light of falling government revenues, unemployment and home foreclosures. And let’s not forget that it was hard times in Alberta that fostered the rise of the Reform Party.
No bust is ever exactly the same as the last bust. Just as no boom is exactly the same as the last one. It does seem as though Alberta and its government are heading into rough economic waters again. No doubt Stelmach wishes that Klein had raised oil and gas royalties quite a few years ago so the government could have reaped the rewards during the boom.
As it looks now, the new royalty regime will go into effect just as the petroleum sector has to deal with a downturn in its fortunes. Be prepared for much gnashing of teeth and loud wailing from oil company CEOs as they make their case for lower royalties. Already, employment in the conventional drilling sector is down and not likely to go up anytime soon.
It’s also likely that we will see planned oilsands projects put on hold. Some of them just aren’t economical when oil slips below $70 a barrel, never mind if it goes lower. That will certainly mean some people will lose their jobs.
As for government revenues, say goodbye to those multi-billion-dollar surpluses. No doubt, administrators at schools boards, universities, hospitals and homeless shelters are chewing their fingernails as they contemplate next year’s budgets.
Unlike the 1980s, Albertans won’t have the NEP to blame for their reversal of fortune. And many people will certainly wish their government had saved much more money during the good times so it could take them through the bad times. They may even have to admit that government deficits aren’t such a fearsome thing after all.
Many will wish they hadn’t believed all those empty-headed bankers and brokers who forecast that oil would soar to $200 a barrel, that the boom was endless, that, yes, they can afford a $750,000 mortgage because the value of their home will continue to rise.
Alberta is usually the last place in the country to feel the effects of a serious downturn. Pretty soon, however, as both Harper and Stelmach grapple with the realities of this recession, they aren’t going to sound as sure of themselves as they once did. Because even Albertans get upset when things aren’t going well.
Gillian Steward is a Calgary-based journalist who has covered politics since the Lougheed days.

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