| If Liberal fortunes in Calgary were rising as fast as Tory fortunes are sinking, then for sure the Libs would easily win next week’s by-election in Calgary Elbow. But Calgarians, being mostly Conservative by nature, don’t warm easily to Liberals.
The only sure thing about this by-election is this: if the Liberals don’t win, they might as well give up on the idea of ever capturing Calgary. Circumstances have never been more favorable for the Liberal camp than they are right now. If they can’t take advantage of the great cards they have been dealt, it’s game over for them in Calgary.
Opinion polls show Premier Stelmach’s approval ratings are plummeting in Calgary. Would you believe that a poll conducted by Cameron Strategy Group in mid-May found the Stelmach government had more support in Redmonton than it does in Calgary? My, my, who would have thought that once Ralph left, the Tory tent would collapse so easily?
Like Mayor Bronconnier, who has been leading the charge against the provincial government for several weeks now, many Calgarians believe that the premier is shortchanging their city. Bronco has been broadcasting this message loud and clear, and it appears to be sinking in. Calgarians have long been used to calling the shots in provincial politics. Two longstanding premiers – Lougheed and Klein – were both from here. Calgarians aren’t used to being ignored. It makes them real mad.
The Liberals have picked up on this theme and are using it for all it’s worth. The first words you encounter on the website of Calgary Elbow Liberal candidate Craig Cheffins are: "Recent events in Edmonton have made it clear. Our government is no longer friendly to Calgary. They are not sensitive to our needs. They are not prepared to act in our interests. It's also clear that the largely rural caucus that supports Premier Stelmach in Northern Alberta isn't interested in hearing what Calgarians have to say."
How handy for the Liberals that Bronconnier has blazed a trail for them. And that the gaggle of Tory MLAs in this city can’t seem to get its act together or doesn’t want to, because most of them don’t like the premier either. The Libs desperately needed to play the Calgary card in an effective way since many Calgarians see them as an Edmonton-based party – if they see them at all. They’ve been handed that card – in spades.
The Libs have been dealt some other great cards as well. If Ralph Klein’s resignation had left an opening in a constituency in the far-flung suburbs, the Libs wouldn’t stand a chance. But inner-city Calgary Elbow has long been fertile territory for Liberals. When Ralph Klein first ran for the Conservatives in Calgary Elbow in 1989 he won by only 823 votes. In the 2004 provincial election a Liberal unknown pulled in about 5,000 votes to Klein’s 7000. The low voter turnout seemed to indicate that many Tories chose not to vote rather than vote for Ralph. If Ralph couldn’t pull them out, what chance does a pinch-hitter have?
That brings us to the current Tory candidate, Brian Heninger. The Heninger name is well known in Calgary because of his car dealerships. In fact, that might be his greatest advantage since he has no previous political experience. But one wonders why the Tories couldn’t find someone young and fresh; someone who could give the party a new face and some sex appeal. Instead, it seems to be treading along old, worn-out tracks. Photos of Heninger campaigning with Stelmach reminded me of the last days of Social Credit in Calgary. The two of them look so out of step with the times, and with this city.
Of course, it would have been a different story if Jim Dinning had been elected Tory leader. He would have run in Calgary Elbow, and since most of his supporters were Calgarians he would have had a strong campaign team. And besides, he would have been premier, another great advantage. But he didn’t win and many of his supporters are now sitting on their hands. Another great card for the Liberals.
The Libs are attracting a lot of positive media chatter in Calgary. This in itself is unusual. Leader Kevin Taft has been door knocking with Craig Cheffins. Liberals from all over the city are volunteering to help out. They don’t have as much money as the Tories – witness Heninger’s huge signs – but they can smell blood, and they can almost taste victory. Tory loyalties are deeply entrenched in this city, however, and the party could yet pull it out of the hat for Heninger. If it does, the Liberals will have fumbled the best opportunity they ever had, and Calgary will be a mainstay of the Tory camp for a long time to come.
Gillian Steward is publisher of Alberta Views. |
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