| Canadian climate change policy experts say talk is cheap and it’s time for federal and provincial governments to get on with making radical reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in light of a major new United Nations (UN) report that found "unequivocal" proof that our planet is rapidly warming.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a widely anticipated report on February 2 that assesses the current scientific knowledge of climate change and its causes. It found that climate change is "very likely" (a 90 per cent probability) caused by human activity through the increased emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
The report states that 11 of the last 12 years have been the warmest years since 1850. Ocean temperatures are increasing, causing sea levels to rise. Mountain glaciers and polar ice caps are shrinking. Alarmingly for Canada, average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rates in the past 100 years. As well, satellite data shows that annual average Arctic sea ice has shrunk by 2.7 per cent per decade since 1978 and the temperature in the top layer of permafrost has increased since the 1980s by up to 3 degrees.
Scientists predict that temperatures will rise by between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius within the next century if greenhouse gas emissions double from pre-industrial levels and warming will be greater over land at the highest northern latitudes.
Dale Marshall, climate change analyst at the David Suzuki Foundation, says "the certainty with which it’s happening has become clear."
"Different media outlets have been using different terminology for this (report) – smoking gun, wakeup call. But we’ve had lots of smoking guns and we’ve had lots of wakeup calls and we keep hitting the snooze button," he says, adding it’s time to act.
The day the UN report was released, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said meeting Canada’s commitments under Kyoto was a "fantasy." However, during a February 6 speech Harper promised a new climate change plan, which will include greenhouse gas emission regulations for the industrial sector and new vehicle fuel efficiency standards. He also promised new programs to promote renewable energy and regulations requiring greater use of green fuels.
However, environmentalists are questioning whether the new regulations for greenhouse gas emissions for industry will be absolute targets or greenhouse gas intensity targets. Conservative Environment Minister John Baird and Alberta Environment Minister Rob Renner have previously promised greenhouse gas emission intensity reductions, which means a reduction in emissions per unit produced. With intensity targets, greenhouse gas emissions overall could continue to increase as industrial production increased.
Marshall says he’ll believe the Conservatives are serious when he sees the specific details of their plan. "The Conservatives spent all of 2006 tearing up the Liberal climate change plan, axing the funding to just about every climate change program the country had… Now they’ve put back into place a few of the programs that they cut last year and changed their communications approach to match the concerns that Canadians are feeling around climate change, but it’s not terribly convincing to me," he says.
"The science is clear that in order to address climate change you need to reduce absolute emissions. Every time someone talks about emissions intensity I think this person either doesn’t believe in climate change or doesn’t believe in addressing climate change because emissions intensity means nothing when it comes to tackling climate change," says Marshall.
Claire Demerse, a climate change analyst for the Pembina Institute, says "we really need a response from (governments) that’s in line with the magnitude of the problem."
The Pembina Institute says Canada needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by "at least" 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050 to address the problem. |
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