| Watching the eleven of them on stage last week, it was impossible not to conclude how far the once mighty Liberal party had fallen in so short a time. Go back a bare two years and it was not unreasonable – improbable, even – to believe that under Paul Martin the Liberals would continue their reign as Canada’s "natural party of government," a role they had filled for more than 70 per cent of the 20th century.
But here they were, in May 2006, 11 hopeful candidates, all desperate to sound like they weren’t attending a wake for the Big Red Machine.
In order to appreciate the Liberal party’s current plight, it’s necessary to go back to the last years of Jean Chrétien. By 2003, there was good reason to think that Chrétien had long outstayed his welcome as prime minister – his arrogance, his remove from public opinion, his lack of new ideas or policies – but at the same time there was also cause to imagine that, once gone, his successor could quickly rebuild public faith in the Liberals.
Exit Chrétien, enter Paul Martin. From solid political stock and arguably the most successful finance minister since the Second World War, at first it seemed that Martin would easily rise to the challenge of becoming Canada’s 21st prime minister. After all, he had long coveted the job, and during his years under Chrétien’s shadow had built a formidable base of support within the party.
At least, so it seemed. In August 2003, Chrétien announced his intention to stand down. Three months later, Martin romped to victory at the November Liberal leadership convention, his 94 per cent of delegate support comfortably trouncing his only rival, Sheila Copps.
In another, perhaps fairer, universe, this triumph should have marked the start of a new Liberal era in government. Instead, just seven months later, Martin took his party to the brink of defeat in the election of June 2004. Much as the electorate had punished Kim Campbell for the sins of Brian Mulroney in 1993, so it appears that Martin fell victim to voter disgust over the endless scandals and indifference of Chrétien’s last years in office. Returned to government with just 135 seats, not even the prospect of support from the NDP’s 19 MPs was enough to give the Martin Liberals the 155 seats they needed to form a working majority in Parliament.
And so it was that Martin led a lame-duck government for the next 18 months, lacking either obvious purpose or clear direction. Indeed, the new prime minister’s boldest move – the launch of the Gomery inquiry – served only to further weaken public support for the Liberals. Thus their defeat in last January’s election was as much a mercy killing as anything, something that Martin himself seemed to recognize when, even before all votes had been counted, he served notice of his intention to step down as party leader.
With Martin effectively accepting the blame for the Liberals’ defeat, this should have been another moment for the party to regroup and rebuild itself. After all, Stephen Harper’s newly united Conservatives may have won the election, but with a minority of just 124 seats and with no obvious allies in Parliament, the chances of a long-lived Tory government looked pretty slim.
And so to last week’s gathering of Liberal hopefuls.
The occasion was the annual meeting of the Ontario branch of the federal Liberal party, the first major party event since Martin’s resignation announcement. But any hope that it might showcase the finest and brightest that the Liberals had to offer had already been tainted by the decision by many of the more obvious successors not to run. These included former premiers Brian Tobin and Frank McKenna, but altogether no fewer than 25 prominent Liberals had publicly ruled themselves out of contention. And one candidate –John Godfrey – had already dropped out of the race, citing health reasons.
Such reluctance to run for one of the top jobs in the country may be attributed to a growing fear within the party that the Liberals face an extended spell in opposition. In short, being appointed Liberal leader no longer guarantees eventually becoming prime minister. Historically, this is almost virgin territory for the Grits. In fact, discounting interim leaders Bill Graham (present), Herb Gray (1990) and Daniel Duncan Mckenzie (1919), the last Liberal leader who did not go on to serve as prime minister was Edward Blake back in the 1880s.
This prospect brings me back to the motley crew of candidates who assembled on stage last week. For the record, the cast were: Maurizio Bevilacqua, Carolyn Bennett, Scott Brison, Stéphane Dion, Ken Dryden, Martha Hall Findlay, Hedy Fry, Michael Ignatieff, Gerard Kennedy, Bob Rae and Joe Volpe. One of these individuals, barring any late entrants, will become the next leader of the Liberals. But the odds of them becoming prime minister are slim.
Watching highlights of the event, two things struck me.
First, it is difficult to believe that there are actually 11 distinct positions or agendas on offer within the Liberal party. In other words, what separates these candidates are not genuine differences of policy or ideology, but simply the level of their ambition to succeed Paul Martin. As such, does it really matter who wins?
Second, although the 11 candidates are rivals for the same job, at this early stage none of them appeared willing to throw the first punch. "You won’t hear a single negative peep from me about them," replied Rae when asked to comment on the other candidates. Everyone else echoed this pledge to preserve party unity.
And so here is the very real problem facing the Liberals. The presence of so many possible choices clearly indicates that the post-Chrétien/Martin party is far from unified. Instead, it is a sprawling mass of factions looking for a central, unifying cause. The most obvious cause, right now, is the desire to oust the Conservatives before they win sufficient public support to risk another election and secure a majority government.
But this fact leads only to one final and ironic problem for the Liberals. Harper’s minority status actually strengthens his hand, for had he won a majority in January, then it’s unlikely he would call another election before 2010 or 2011, time enough for the Liberals to rebuild and restore themselves in the eyes of the public. With a minority, however, an election might be called at any time, certainly within the next year or so, which means the Liberals would have to run two races at the same time – one for a new leader, and one to become the next government.
Whether any of the candidates on display last week has the ability, character and strength to fulfil this dual role remains to be seen. For the sake of the party, however, the sooner it drops any false sense of unity and gets on with the real fight, the better off it will be. |
Copyright ©2006 FFWD. All rights reserved.