| Albertans understand the importance of a free market. Even as children we hear the stories — let the market prevail and Adam Smith’s ghastly invisible hand will emerge from its ageless slumber to flick away the weak, while providing congratulatory massages to the strong. It’s the only way to keep the power flowing, the doctors doctoring and the businessmen spry and limber.
If the free market can work for frivolities like heating and health care, it must also have more practical applications, like making Oscar predictions. Sure enough, the Internet has provided a forum for just that. Every hour of every day, thousands of gambling-addicted cinephiles are visiting the Hollywood Stock eXchange (www.hsx.com), where their actions determine the relative worth of Sean Connery, the next Harry Potter sequel, and a prospective Cheech and Chong reunion.
The actual setup of the website is simple. When you sign up, you get $2 million in imaginary money to invest in your favourite actors and films. Movie prices, or "MovieStocks" are based on the expected box office for their first month of wide release, while actors are traded as "StarBonds" and are valued by the performance of their last five films. It usually makes sense – Tom Cruise is trading for $135 a share, while Tom Green sits at $15 – but there are a few surprises. Sarah Michelle Gellar’s $85 going rate seems to owe more to online Buffy fans than any real logic, and Terry Gilliam’s $4.67 proves that talent doesn’t always play into the equation.
The Oscar picks work a little differently. Because they only come into play for a limited time, HSX treats the nominees as options rather than stocks. The difference is, while stocks rise and fall over the long term, options bounce around quickly and then cash out at a pre-specified time. Say you own the Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture award option, which is selling for around $17. If Brokeback goes on to win, the option will instantly jump to $25 in value, giving you a tidy $8 per share profit. If it doesn’t win, the option drops to $0 and you lose the imaginary shirt off your back.
For such a simple premise, it works surprisingly well. This year, the market nailed 35 out of 40 nominations, which is doubly impressive considering they were dinged twice for Syriana’s baffling Best Original Screenplay nod, despite the fact that the movie was based on a novel. Last year, they managed to predict every single major category winner, a feat that doubtless put the fear of Adam Smith into many a film pundit. After all, with accuracy like that, who needs Roger Ebert’s Oscar predictions?
As appealing as an Ebertless world is, there’s something unsettling about HSX. It would be easy to think of it as an addictive diversion, but the site’s accuracy proves there is more to it. The HSX looks at movies as purely commercial things, driven by economic formulas and almost entirely separate from any artistic merit. The only way it can work so well is if Hollywood takes exactly the same approach. It’s been obvious for years that Hollywood and artistic merit live in two separate worlds, but to have it put on display is still a little discomforting.
But for those who don’t want to think about it, HSX is a great time waster. If anything, it’s a testament to the strength of the free market. Considering the motion picture was only a pipedream in Smith’s day – most inventors were more concerned with perfecting the flush toilet than making movies – his ideas are surprisingly resilient. Maybe this privatization thing will work out after all.
Looking for an edge in your office Oscar pool? Here are the HSX’s predictions for the eight major categories:
· Best Adapted Screenplay – Brokeback Mountain
· Best Original Screenplay – Crash
· Best Director – Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
· Best Picture – Brokeback Mountain
· Best Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz for the Constant Gardener
· Best Supporting Actor – George Clooney for Syriana
· Best Actress – Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
· Best Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote |
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