| The Conservative Party may have formed the government for the first time in 13 years, but Calgary political pundits are predicting that the party won’t be able to implement its entire agenda because, with only 124 seats, it will be a minority government with no natural allies to prop it up.
That likely means no free votes on controversial issues such as same-sex marriage, which Conservative Leader Stephen Harper promised during the election campaign.
"I don’t think he’ll dare to do anything like free votes on same-sex marriage and things like that," says Doreen Barrie, political science professor at the University of Calgary (U of C). "Stephen Harper can’t run with anything radical and he’s always going to be held in check by the other parties."
Keith Brownsey, a professor of policy studies at Mount Royal College, agrees.
"They have no allies in this Parliament. None," he says. "For the Conservatives, it’s not a question of bringing down a government now. It’s a question of governing and their policies are, for the most part, antithetical and opposed to just about everything the NDP, Liberals and Bloc stand for."
However, Barrie says all the parties will have to work together and make compromises because Canadians won’t want another election anytime soon and that leaves the Conservatives in a tricky situation. If the Conservatives want to stay in power, David Taras, U of C professor in the faculty of communication and culture, says they will have to be "very careful" and negotiate with the other parties issue by issue.
On the separatist front, Taras says Conservative gains in Quebec show that "federalism is still alive." The Conservatives won 10 seats in Quebec, up from zero in the last election. The Bloc Québécois lost three seats. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe was campaigning to win at least 50 per cent of the popular vote in Quebec, but only received 42.1 per cent.
"What he wanted to do was to interpret 50 per cent in the popular vote as a vote for sovereignty or a run-up to sovereignty, so they will be disappointed," says Barrie.
She adds that the Bloc will now have to deal with attacks from two federalist parties who have seats in Quebec – the Liberals and the Conservatives.
"(Duceppe) doesn’t have just one party to worry about. He’s got something on each flank. The Bloc will have to work much harder now," she says.
NDP Leader Jack Layton, on the other hand, had reason to celebrate, as the party increased its seats to 29 from 19. However, it won’t be enough for the NDP to hold the balance of power because NDP seats combined with Conservative seats don’t make up a majority. But Brownsey predicts the NDP will still have clout in the new Parliament.
"They can have considerable influence because Layton’s stature has picked up so dramatically," he says. "Remember who else was elected – Olivia Chow, his wife, and they are a real Ottawa power couple. They are relentless and this is going to make a difference in Ottawa because they’re flashy. They’re going to be everywhere in the media and they really represent the new Canada, the new urban sophisticate Canada."
The Green Party didn’t achieve its goal of winning a seat, but it did make some gains. In 2004, the Green Party won 4.3 per cent of the popular vote with 582,247 votes, becoming eligible for public funding. Any registered political party is eligible for public funding if they receive at least two per cent of the popular vote overall and five per cent of the popular vote in a specific riding. This election, the Green Party won 4.5 per cent of the popular vote with 665,940 votes. The Green Party percentage of the popular vote in Calgary – 8.5 per cent – was higher than any other major city in the country and was only marginally lower than the NDP, which had 10.1 per cent of the popular vote in Calgary.
Meanwhile, the Liberal party now has to elect a new leader because Prime Minister Paul Martin has announced he will not take the party into another election. But Barrie says the Liberal party put on a better showing in the election than most people predicted.
"The most striking thing, I think, is the Liberals – despite all their problems, despite an abysmal campaign – have still got so many seats and the Conservatives – who will never see such a weak Liberal party again – were only able to get 25 seats more," says Barrie.
"I think the Liberals have been sent to the penalty box…. Canadians have sent a message to the Liberals that they weren’t going to vote for them, but they don’t want them dead."
On the provincial front, the Conservatives swept every Alberta riding, knocking out former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan in Edmonton. But Taras predicts that a new Conservative government could mean headaches for Premier Ralph Klein.
"It may not be particularly good news for the Alberta government because Klein is going to move on private health care," he explains. "Stephen Harper is going to be the defender of public health care, so he tells us. He’s leading a national government and the West is going to have to not get its way on certain things."
However, Brownsey predicts that Harper won’t put up much of a fight against Klein’s privatization agenda.
"Does a leopard change his spots? He’ll say it’s under provincial jurisdiction," predicts Brownsey. |
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