| Just 17 months after the last federal election, Canadians will be heading back to the polls in January after an overwhelming non-confidence vote was cast against the Liberal government. Political pundits are predicting the election will bring more of the same – a Liberal minority government federally and a Conservative sweep of all Calgary seats – but not without a nasty election campaign first.
Despite the sponsorship scandal as prime political fodder, Doreen Barrie, adjunct political science professor at the University of Calgary, predicts Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper still won’t be palatable to the average Canadian voter.
"I think that Stephen Harper probably is a problem," says Barrie. "The leadership is a problem. People are afraid of what he might do, although he’s moderated his stance quite a bit since the merger with the Progressive Conservatives. But I’m not actually sure that people believe that he’s been converted or whether it’s just political expediency, and so that, I think, is something that is at the back of people’s minds."
Keith Brownsey, a political science professor at Mount Royal College, agrees.
"Stephen Harper and the Conservatives scare people and are out of the mainstream of Canadian life," he says. "They are too far right for the vast majority of Canadians.’
Brownsey says Canadians are unhappy with the sponsorship scandal, but "they’re more afraid of what Harper will do to the country."
According to a national November 26 Ipsos Reid poll conducted for the CanWest News Service/Global News, Liberals had 34 per cent voter support, Conservatives had 30 per cent, the NDP had 16 per cent and the Green Party had five per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois had 59 per cent support, compared to 27 per cent for the Liberals.
Brownsey predicts that the Liberals will end up winning five or 10 more seats than they did in the last election, but he says it depends on how much Paul Martin can distance himself from Liberal Party corruption.
"Martin has been exonerated (in the Gomery inquiry). The question is can he differentiate himself from Chrétien, but keep the party base at the same time," says Brownsey.
Barrie says the political situation in Canada is "volatile" and it’s hard to predict the outcome. But she notes that the fact Conservatives haven’t jumped dramatically in the polls – even with the sponsorship scandal hanging over the Liberals – isn’t a good sign for the Conservatives.
"If the Conservatives were going to make big gains, you would’ve expected them to have done that… because the Liberals were in such trouble."
She adds that what she can predict is that the campaign will get nasty as the parties battle for control of Parliament in what is likely to be a tight race.
"We can be sure this is not going to be a very edifying campaign. You know the politicians are going to be vicious and the voters are going to be cranky and the weather’s going to be foul, so it’s going to be an election campaign awash in bile, and I think that’s going to fuel cynicism among voters – and that’s most unfortunate."
Barrie says she won’t be surprised if voter turnout is low again. In the June 2004 election, only 60.9 per cent of Canadians cast a ballot.
She adds that if there’s another minority government, the political parties will be forced to work together and come up with more compromises if they want to prevent another rapid election.
Both Barrie and Brownsey say it’s unlikely that any Calgary ridings will be taken away from the Conservatives in this election. Brownsey describes Calgary as "Conservative Disneyland." However, he points out that Calgary East MP Deepak Obhrai may be vulnerable because RCMP are currently investigating allegations that he took money to fast-track an immigration application.
The federal election will take place on January 23, 2006. |
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