| The ballots haven’t been counted – they haven’t even been cast – but some Alberta Green Party candidates are already declaring this provincial election a success for their party.
The Greens have campaign offices in Calgary and Edmonton for the first time. They have more women running in this election than they had running federally in Alberta. They’ve received a significant amount of media attention for a party of their size.
They know they probably won’t form a government, or even the opposition. Most Greens are more realistic than that. But Alberta Greens are optimistic, too. They’re riding the wake of the federal election, where the Green Party in Canada went from being a relatively unknown entity to a well-known one that got over four per cent of the popular vote country-wide.
They also picked up 6.2 per cent of the popular vote in Alberta, and 7.5 per cent in Calgary.
"It’s going to be right in the middle of Calgary where the Green revolution starts," says Calgary-Mountain View candidate Mark MacGillivray.
That may sound farfetched to some, but the numbers appear to back up MacGillivray’s claim.
Federally, Calgary had more Green support (reflected in the popular vote) than any other city in Canada, with the exception of Victoria. MacGillivray himself was the third most successful Green candidate in the country (out of 308 candidates), getting over 11 per cent of the popular vote when he ran in Calgary-Nose Hill in June.
This election, the Greens have 49 candidates running. That’s up from 11 in the last provincial election. The Greens are hoping to put down roots in the provincial political landscape, but it’s hard earth to break up. Alberta Green Party leader George Read knows it. He acknowledges that the Greens most likely won’t win seats in the legislature, but calls this a "building election" for his party.
"To a certain extent, this election is about paying our dues," says Read, who is running in Calgary-Egmont. "It’s about getting our organization built to the point where people say, ‘Yes, we’re willing to give them our vote.’"
To that end, the Greens are doing a lot of what they did in May and June: knocking on doors and meeting with voters; trying to grab the attention of the media; and working to dismantle stereotypes and perceptions of the Greens as a one-issue party.
"It’s a completely misunderstood party in so many ways," says Calgary-Bow Green candidate Marie Picken. "A lot of people see it as just environmental."
In fact, the Green Party has policy on other issues as well. For example, its approach to health care is focused on prevention, while most of the other parties look exclusively at treatment.
But University of Calgary political scientist Anthony Sayers says it will still be a tough challenge for the Greens to shake the left-wing, tree-hugging image that’s often pinned on them.
"Greenness is not a neutral term," says Sayers. "It comes with baggage, and you have to work very hard to get through that baggage in a place like Alberta…. Even when you try to be broad, people assume that the environment will drive everything."
Sayers describes the Green party as a "right-wing environmental party," even though the party likes to insist that it is neither right nor left, but forward.
While the left-wing NDP might call for government intervention to solve problems such as environmental degradation, the Greens have more faith in the market. They also advocate a "decentralized health-care system," according to the provincial platform.
"We still see room for a free-market economy," says Picken. "We’re not set on having everything controlled by the government. The Green Party policy is very fiscally responsible."
Picken says the commitment to a balanced budget is one thing that sets the Greens apart from parties like the NDP.
But Sayers says the general public is unaware of what he calls the "right-wing" elements of the Green Party. He’s predicting that the Greens will be getting most of their votes from left-leaning voters: people who would vote for the NDP or the Liberals if the Greens weren’t in the race.
Read and MacGillivray disagree, arguing that most of the Green vote comes from conservative and disillusioned voters who wouldn’t otherwise vote.
"Really, in terms of vote-splitting, we have a zero-sum effect on the game," says Read, citing the results of exit polls conducted by the Green Party during the last B.C. election in 2001. Those polls show that about 30 per cent of Green voters were non-voters, 30 per cent were from the traditional right and 40 per cent were from the traditional left of centre.
But Sayers says it’s "a wash at best" to suggest that the Greens won’t be winning votes away from the NDP and Liberals in Alberta, splitting the non-Progressive Conservative vote further and leaving Klein to clean up.
For MacGillivray, it’s about choice. He’s running against high-profile Liberal candidate David Swann, and while he says he has "the utmost respect" for Swann, he also says he’s "committed to giving every Calgarian the chance to vote Green."
So what will the result be on November 22?
"I’d love to win the seat of MLA," says Picken, but she acknowledges that most likely won’t happen. "I’m hoping to make people more aware of the Green party and what we’re all about."
MacGillivray is hoping the Greens will have a presence in the legislature. "We believe that it’s very possible we could get a breakthrough candidate this election," he says. "And even if we don’t, we’re focused on 30 months from now for the next provincial election, where we fully intend to form the government or the opposition."
Read is hesitant to make any predictions, but he’s expecting to see some solid Green support on election day. "I do think that we’re going to be surprised, and I do think that the polling numbers we’re seeing do not reflect what we’re hearing at the doorsteps," he says.
"I think you’re going to be hearing from the Alberta Greens for a long time." |
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