| Well, at least it’s over now. Almost exactly two years after defeating Stockwell Day for the leadership of the Canadian Alliance, Stephen Harper scored an easy victory over Tony Clement and Belinda Stronach to become leader of the newly (re)united Conservative Party of Canada. In each case he won on the first ballot by receiving roughly 56 per cent of the votes cast.
Congratulations, Mr. Harper. From here on, things are going to get much tougher.
In his acceptance speech two weeks ago, Harper declared that his victory marked "the beginning of the end" for Paul Martin’s Liberal government. Maybe. But any realistic appraisal of the Conservatives’ electoral prospects only underlines the size of the task now facing Harper. Here’s why.
In theory, the timing is perfect for the revamped Conservative party to capitalize on its recent momentum. First, the Liberals continue to reel under almost daily revelations about the Quebec sponsorship scandal. Former minister of public works Alfonso Gagliano, in particular, exhibits a seemingly infinite ability to worsen matters.
Second, there’s the weird spectacle of Prime Minister Paul Martin leading the charge on his own government, as if his personal role and responsibility in the previous administration were somehow unconnected to the present scandal.
Third, there’s the fact that the public has never actually endorsed Martin as their national leader. Rather, he was foisted upon them by that same Liberal juggernaut that now staggers on under the shadow of corruption and collusion. Add to that the fact that in his public pronouncements, even on the most banal of subjects, he sounds like a man suffering from severe constipation, and it’s tough to say he’s really endeared himself to the electorate so far.
Finally, recent polls indicate that while public disillusionment with the Liberals – in power for 11 years now – is nowhere near Mulroney levels, it’s probably enough to reduce them to minority government status after the next election.
There are, then, signs that the electorate is perhaps ready to turn to the least worst alternative. But does that mean it’s ready to elect the Progressive Conservative-Reform-Alliance party that’s been cobbled together over the past couple of years? On the face of it, Canada does at least have what it hasn’t for almost two decades: a right-wing Conservative party ostensibly singing from the same song sheet, if not necessarily in the same key on all policy issues. What remains to be seen is whether Harper & Co. can build on this fact to present a credible national government-in-waiting. Recent history suggests not.
Take the last five federal elections. Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives won the first two (1984 and 1988) easily, before plummeting from grace in 1993. Jean Chrétien’s Liberals took the next three (1993, 1997 and 2000) with reasonably solid if not outstanding majorities.
During that time, conservative support – whether for the PCs, Reform and/or Alliance – was rooted firmly in the West. The good news here is that conservative parties (combined) have consistently won 60 to 75 per cent of all seats in the four western provinces. The bad news, however, is that they have fared very poorly in other regions of the country. Indeed, in the past three elections this western base has provided, respectively, 94, 76 and 85 per cent of all seats won by the Conservative movement across the nation.
In other words, while the West broadly continues to vote for right-wing parties, the rest of the nation does not. Harper – not a westerner by birth, but through his long apprenticeship in the Reform party – will have to dramatically broaden his new party’s base if he is to succeed.
Where will that support come from? Representing between them more than half of all available seats across Canada, Ontario (103) and Quebec (75) are the obvious targets.
"The road to power in Ottawa goes through Quebec," Harper supporter and chair of the Red Tory Council Rick Peterson wrote in February this year. Yet Harper himself has ruled out any form of alliance with the Bloc Québécois. "I do not see us making a deal with the separatists," he said earlier this month. So the Conservatives will have to go it alone in Quebec. Yet even though support for the Bloc has declined in recent elections, from 54 seats in 1993 to 38 seats in 2000, the beneficiary of this has been the Liberals (up from 19 to 36 seats), not the Conservatives.
That leaves Ontario. Somehow, Harper has to succeed where even his former mentor Preston Manning failed. That too looks unlikely, however. Since the fall of Mulroney, Conservatives have won a total of just four seats in Ontario, even more dismal than their showing in Quebec. The Liberals remain solidly in control, a fact only reinforced by last year’s provincial backlash against the conservative legacy of Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. And without a provincial base of support on which to build, it would take a miracle for the new federal Conservative party to gain power on the back of Ontario.
And here’s the real dilemma for Harper. In his bid so far to appeal to Ontario voters, he’s recast himself as a moderate Red Tory, not the social conservative of his Alliance and Reform party days. The risk here is twofold. First, in shifting to the political centre, the Conservatives cease to be distinguishable from the governing Liberals in any meaningful sense, so why vote for them? Second, Harper may well alienate and even lose some of his bedrock support in Western Canada, if there’s a sense that the distinct interests of the West once again have taken a back seat to those of Ontario.
The next few months are thus likely to see the making or breaking of Stephen Harper. At the moment, the odds in his favour don’t look good.
Federal Election Results, 1984-2000
MaritimesQuebecOntario WestNWT/Yukon
Liberals
19847171420
198820124362
1993311998272
19971126101152
20001936100142
Conservatives
1984*185867583
1988*126346480
1993**111510
1997**1351610
2000***912660
(*PC; ** PC/ Reform Party; ***PC/Alliance) |
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