| Now that the dust has settled, perhaps it’s possible to make sense of just what happened as a result of the two recent big elections in North America.
In case you’d been looking the other way, the first was in Ontario, where the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty trounced the incumbent Tory government of Ernie Eves. The second was in California, where ex-Mr. Universe and Hollywood actor Arnold Schwarzenegger won the recall election to replace Governor Gray Davis.
First, the results have produced a similar concentration of power in both nations. In America, the federal government and that of the single largest state are now in Republican hands. In Canada, the federal government and that of the single largest province are in Liberal hands. This results in a dual alignment of ideologically opposed forces on either side of the border, which racks the potential for future conflict up a notch – relations between Canada and the U.S. are already under considerable strain over the war on Iraq, support for the United Nations, free trade disputes, etc.
Against this threat, however, there are various militating factors that lessen the likelihood of any ideological rift. For one thing, Schwarzenegger is not your typical Republican. While it’s impossible to judge his track record in public office (there isn’t one), his public "liberal" stand on abortion and limited gun control hardly make him a natural ally of President Bush and other right-wing Republicans in the White House. There’s also his much-publicized connection to the Kennedy clan, courtesy of wife Maria Shriver. Although the "liberal Kennedy" myth was always overstated and today has little basis in reality, appearances and perceptions remain significant. Schwarzenegger is in bed, literally, with the other side, and it’s doubtful that he’ll become hostage to the right wing of the Republican party anytime soon.
On the Canadian side, there’s also reason to doubt whether the election of McGuinty will produce a new Ontario-Ottawa axis of left-leaning power. ("Left-leaning" here, of course, is used in strictly relative terms.) McGuinty’s elevation to premier coincides with the final stages of Jean Chrétien’s drawn-out exit from the Prime Minister’s Office, and there are already signs that his successor is beginning to assume the reins of power. So far, however, Paul Martin’s overtures have been limited almost entirely to other federal powers, and not his provincial counterparts. (A notable exception has been his vague promise to listen to the West more seriously.)
As for McGuinty himself, he has more pressing problems on his plate, including the as-yet-undisclosed provincial debt bequeathed him by the outgoing administration. The federal Liberals may well have quietly intervened to help elbow McGuinty into power, but they’re unlikely to help bail out the incoming government.
History is also against the prospect of Ottawa-Ontario Liberal unity. The last time the party ruled both Sussex Drive and Queen’s Park was back in the 1930s, when William Lyon Mackenzie King and Mitchell Hepburn headed the federal and provincial governments, respectively. Far from working together, however, the two men clashed repeatedly over federal-provincial co-operation, constitutional jurisdiction and assistance for the unemployed. In the end, the brash Hepburn was no match for the wily King and he quit provincial politics a beaten man in the 1940s. On this basis, there’s no reason to expect an automatic McGuinty-Martin love-in.
The recent election results themselves, then, may turn out to have little or no ideological significance. What matters more, I suspect, was the manner in which the two victors actually came into power.
Much as predicted and/or feared, there was precious little serious debate about issues in the California recall election. Instead, virtually all media attention was on Schwarzenegger’s celebrity status, with Arnie himself slowly warming to the game by promising to "terminate" the state’s $38-billion deficit and to "be bahk" to finish off the job.
"Politics is just like show business," declared Ronald Reagan in 1966, as he prepared to become governor of California. Four decades later, the election of the untested Schwarzenegger to lead a state whose population is greater than Canada’s and whose economy eclipses that of Great Britain marks the ultimate convergence of celebrity status and political power.
By contrast, McGuinty ran – admittedly to great effect – possibly the least charismatic campaign in Canadian history. Even opposition jibes about his "pointy head" and "kitten-eating" proclivities failed to goad him. Instead, he stuck to some bland mumblings about "time for change" and steadfastly focused on not giving anyone any reason not to vote for him.
It’s tempting, of course, to conclude that this contrast in styles between McGuinty and Schwarzenegger simply reaffirms that Canadians are inherently more mature, responsible and restrained in their exercise of democracy. But on closer inspection, neither approach achieved a high voter turnout.
In Ontario, slightly more than 50 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballot, with the Liberals securing a bare majority of that sum. In other words, McGuinty lacks the support of three-quarters of the Ontario electorate. In California, Schwarzenegger snagged victory with 3.6 million votes, clearly ahead of his nearest rival but less than half of all votes cast. And with a population of more than 35 million, it seems that even the attraction of the Terminator running for office failed to excite the majority of voters.
Perhaps that’s the best news to emerge from the elections. |
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