| It’s strange how the Academy Awards have become so revered in modern culture, considering how little they reflect real life or popular opinion.
With television networks broadcasting all the award shows in what has become "awards season," the Oscars are now the championship of movie acclaim, with the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Golden Globes and People's Choice Awards acting as the playoffs.
For the second year in a row, Hollywood seems intent on branding a musical Best Picture. Some may see Chicago’s 13 nominations as a yearning for the Golden Era of the 1930s, when movie musicals filled theatres during the Depression. More likely, Hollywood is looking to embrace a product that’s cheerful and fun (God forbid they should nominate a comedy), in contrast to heavy films like Gangs of New York and The Pianist. But despite the presence of stars like Richard Gere and Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago remains an elitist film, with the narrow appeal and arty smugness that the Academy favours.
The casual moviegoer is encouraged to believe that the Academy Awards are based on merit or popularity, but they’re really a matter of fashion, politics and whimsy. So with the air of ignorance that incorrect predictions carry, here are my best guesses at which films will win, along with my thoughts about which ones should win:
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: Chicago, Gangs of New York, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Hours and The Pianist.
Will win: Gangs of New York – the Big One is a tough call this year, but Gangs has the drama, the ambition and the historical basis that the Academy loves.
Should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers – its sheer scope and entertainment value are laudable.
No Chance: LOTR – too popular to win (as was Star Wars in 1977), and it isn’t nominated in the other major categories.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Adaptation), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt), Michael Caine (The Quiet American) and Adrien Brody (The Pianist).
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis – like Anthony Hopkins in Hannibal, he’s uncomfortably convincing playing the villain.
Should win: Viggo Mortensen (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers) ought to have at least been nominated – sure, he’s only playing an action hero, but he should be rewarded for carrying a three-hour story while on horseback, fighting in the rain, drowning in a river, etc.
No chance: Adrien Brody – all others have been to the podium for one of these statues before, but he is too unknown for the Academy (although Roberto Benigni did win in 1998).
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Renée Zellweger (Chicago), Diane Lane (Unfaithful), Salma Hayek (Frida), Nicole Kidman (The Hours) and Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven).
Will win: Kidman – unrecognizable in The Hours, but a goddess on the red carpet, which is just what the Academy wants in a movie star (also a damn fine actress).
Should win: Lane – one of the unsung heroines of Hollywood, she has never had a chance to shine this brightly since The Cotton Club.
No chance: Moore – voters will want to avoid the embarrassment of awarding her twice in one night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Chris Cooper (Adaptation), John C. Reilly (Chicago), Paul Newman (Road to Perdition), Ed Harris (The Hours) and Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can).
Will win: Newman – in a tight race, voters favour the elder statesman (as they did awarding Caine and James Coburn in the late ’90s).
Should win: Cooper – put in his time in dozens of forgettable movies before casting agents realized he could act.
No chance: Walken, if there’s any justice in the world – he was wooden and conventional in Catch Me If You Can.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Meryl Streep (Adaptation), Queen Latifah (Chicago), Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago), Julianne Moore (The Hours) and Kathy Bates (About Schmidt)
Will win: Zeta-Jones – like Jennifer Connelly last year in A Beautiful Mind, she was dropped into the supporting category so she could win.
Should win: Bates – a quality actress who’s credible and fearless.
No chance: Latifah – what, a black actress winning two years in a row? Also Streep, who has too many Oscars to get to the podium against this bunch.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Rob Marshall (Chicago), Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York), Roman Polanski (The Pianist), Stephen Daldry (The Hours) and Pedro Almodóvar (Talk to Her).
Will win: Scorsese – the closest thing to a lock at this year’s awards.
Should win: Anyone but Marshall, whose direction was uninspired to say the least. Why wasn’t Peter Jackson nominated for LOTR?
No chance: Out-of-towners Almodóvar and Polanski (the latter if only for his checkered past). |
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