Vladimir Putin revealed
West helps Russian leader exert autocratic control
The good times are rolling for Vlady Putin and the Russian oligarchy. The economy is growing, all sorts of co-operative efforts with the West are moving ahead, and a nuclear device has not blown up or sunk in over a year.
But the happy days may last only as long as oil remains at its current war-expectant prices because Russia’s economy revolves around the same simple cycle as Alberta’s. Oil prices over $25 US a barrel mean the economy and the government have enough money to make the world taste good. Less than $20 US a barrel makes Putin look dumber than the average bear.
Oil is the lubricant for Russia’s improving fortunes, but Putin can take some credit for applying a steady, if hard, hand to his government. In doing so, Putin has followed his KGB training closely. While the Russian president may have to endure the annoyance of an election every four years, his control of the government and the country is all but complete in between.
An autocrat in this world needs to produce three things to stay in power: stability, an improving standard of living for the citizens, and assistance, in one form or another, to the U.S. in its war on terrorism. All of these require Putin to pull Russia closer to the West, a move that the Russian people are finding increasingly distasteful.
Russian democracy is becoming a reflection of Chile, Indonesia or Pakistan more than the U.S. or Canada. The basic trappings of democracy are there, but it is difficult to imagine serious presidential contenders in a fair fight, or a smooth or proper transition of power. None of the powers that be in the West are all that concerned about this democratic drift – a "managed" form of democracy in Russia fits nicely with the foreign policy the U.S. used for decades during the Cold War and is quickly dusting off for its war on terrorism.
Friendly semi-autocratic powers have long been the foundation of U.S. foreign policy. They are less prone to wild fluctuations of public opinion, especially anti-American sentiments, and are more dependent on American largesse. Whether it is direct military aid, loans or debt forgiveness, the U.S. has a way to get its tentacles into an autocrat. Once there, tentacle removal becomes a painful process for both sides.
While the U.S. administration has been drumming up high level support from Canada, France or America’s newest, bestest friend, England, for its war against terrorism, the ground battle has depended on countries with less democratic credentials. Pakistan, Georgia and Qatar are three keys to the U.S. anti-terrorism campaign, just like the good old days when Pinochet’s Chile, Somosa’s Nicaragua and Suharto’s Indonesia were bulwarks against the spread of the international cancer known as communism.
In Pakistan, self-appointed president Pervez Musharraf continues to expand his powers with the implicit, if not explicit, support of the U.S. government. Georgia’s president, Edward Shevardnadze, who is struggling to maintain his grip on a corrupt government he has already fired once this year, has asked the U.S. to train his army to fight terrorists. Qatar, a traditional monarchy, is diversifying its oil-dependent economy by becoming host to one of the largest U.S. airbases outside of North America.
Musharraf’s control of Pakistan is cause for relief in Washington – elected civilian governments in the Muslim state would not be able to ignore the voters' strong anti-American feelings. With its current "with us or agin us" mentality, the U.S. is less concerned about a government’s legitimacy than its ability to deliver what America needs to fight its most current war.
The U.S. perspective on Russia is the same. Putin may be ready for closer ties with the West, but the Russian president’s rapprochement with the West runs counter to current public opinion. Russians in general remain distrustful of the West – the previous 80 years of conflict are proving tough to just wish away.
Yet, Putin needs the West, its money and a share of its influence. The West needs Russian oil and a useful ally in trying to quell terrorist-spawning forces that are sweeping the Middle East, and especially the area of former Russian influence known as Eurasia. The Russian people may kick and scream at this unholy alliance, but their opinion hardly matters when issues of strategic importance are at stake.
ONLINE RESOURCES
www.eurasianet.org — An excellent source of news and information on the U.S.’s latest strategic interest.
Two Russian news sources in English:
www.russianobserver.com
www.russiatoday.com |
