FFWD Weekly
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Viewpoint
by Hamish MacAulayShort of launching missiles like they did in 1996, Chinese leaders did everything they could to influence the results of Taiwan's March 18 presidential election. But the Taiwanese refused to allow China's intimidation tactics to ruin the most democratic moment in Chinese history and a watershed for the island non-state.
Taiwan proved their democratic status by electing opposition leader Chen Shui-bian and relegating the Kuomintang, the party that has ruled the country since 1949, to an embarrassing third place.
The election was a clear break from Taiwan's past and a statement on how far this island's society and culture has diverged from mainland China. In pushing itself towards an open democracy and economy, Taiwan has ensured that reunification with China can come only if China follows through with its long held bluff to invade, or catches up with its breakaway state in political and economic reforms.
The election results are a testament to the progress democracy has made in the 13 years since outgoing President Lee Teng-hui started his democratic reforms. Over 80 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot. Mr. Chen, a former dissident and leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), finished just two per cent ahead of James Soong Chu-yu, a former Kuomintang honcho running without a party on an anti-corruption platform. President Lee's chosen successor and Kuomintang candidate, Lien Chan, finished well behind the two leaders.
As far as the Chinese government is concerned, it was the worst possible result. Mr. Chen's DPP advocates for an independent and sovereign Taiwan. During the election, Mr. Chen toned down his independence stance, stating he welcomed increased links between China and Taiwan, and peace talks as long as they took place between equals.
More links and dialogue between equals were a part of all three major candidate's platforms. Yet, in the confusing world of China-Taiwan relations, the Kuomintang, reviled by China for decades, suddenly became its best choice for president. Mr. Chen is a more symbolic choice, a thumb-to-nose gesture at China's efforts to influence the election. The election itself was always more important than who won.
The voters dictated the uniformity in the candidates' positions on relations with the mainland. No candidate dared to support the one-China policy that mainland China sees as a prerequisite for any discussions. Such support would have led to election disaster. The Taiwanese refuse to accept China's position that they are simply a rogue province that will one day become a part of China the same way Hong Kong did.
It is this fundamental difference that has prevented any discussion on re-unification and fostered the political contortions by everyone involved. Taiwan is happy to enter talks under the one-China doctrine as long as the doctrine recognizes Taiwan as equal and independent – and it doesn’t. Even the limited talks over the years have occurred through private agencies because the governments refuse to acknowledge each other. The U.S., even though it supports the one-China policy, continues to provide military support and maintain strong economic relations with Taiwan.
This U.S. military support, a remnant of America's Cold War containment policy, prevents China from using force to end the impasse. Not only must China be concerned about the U.S. intervening, the Taiwanese army may be sufficiently equipped to defend the island on its own.
The Chinese leadership has realized that time is not on its side and that Taiwan is drifting further away each day. China outlined a plan and a timeline for re-unification in a recent white paper. In a move that clearly supports the ambitions of China’s President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji, the paper revised the deadline for re-unification from 2020 to 2007. According to the South China Morning Post, the 2007 date is significant because it is the year of the Communist Party's 17th Congress. Jiang will be 81 that year and is expected to turn the reins of power in China over to the next generation.
Before that date, he will want to ensure his place in history by bringing Taiwan back into the fold. To that end, Chinese military planners have created a Kosovo-like plan that avoids the military mess of an invasion. China hopes to use air bombardment and missile strikes to intimidate Taiwan into re-unification before the U.S. has time to decide whether it wants to go to war with China on Taiwan's behalf.
It is a bleak outlook for Taiwan, but hope remains. Despite the political stalemate, economic ties have grown at an irrepressible rate in the ’90s. China's muted reaction to Mr. Chen's election was due, in part, to China's fear that a robust response might threaten its acceptance into the World Trade Organization. These economic ties, however, may not be strong enough to contain the wills of China's leaders and the Taiwanese people.
Per cent of Taiwanese that consider themselves Chinese
1992 – 44%
1999 – 13%
Per cent that consider themselves Taiwanese
1992 – 37%
1999 – 17%
WEB SITES
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Asian news sites in English
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