FFWD Weekly
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Viewpoint by FFWD Staff Once again, as the Balkans go, so does the Western world. NATO finally reached the level of resolve needed to ignore the regional and global consequences to begin the second offensive military action in its history; its second air attack against Yugoslavia. Like 1914, national tensions across Europe are being fanned by the fires in the Balkans. There is some hope, however, that NATO, Russia, China and India understand how much they have to lose in a larger conflict, and the thin veneer of global politics over the deep ethnic hatreds in this part of Europe will not explode far beyond its boundaries. Whether it is short or long, a success or a failure, NATO's intervention is a defining moment in post-Cold War international relations. NATO airstrikes will not solve the region's problems. After hundreds of years of conflict in the Balkans, the question is will it ever end? What the Kosovo intervention does is confirm that NATO will take pro-active steps to ensure European security. It also gives new NATO members in eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic) a quick lesson in what it means to be members of a security organization dominated by the U.S. and western Europe. And, the intervention will foster the growing relationships between Russia, China and India. The fighting in the Balkans has been going on for almost 10 years. During that time the U.S. and Europe have been drawn into the conflict because of the violence and brutality that the Serbian government has used as it tries to expand, or, in this case, maintain its control over the former states of communist Yugoslavia. In 1995, NATO airstrikes against Serbian positions forced Slobodan Milosevic to the negotiating table and into a sustainable peace agreement. Kosovo is different, and the potential for such a neat solution as the Dayton accords is slim at best. The Serbians and Kosovars still have a strong will to fight, and NATO is not interested in creating and protecting an independent Kosovo. Although, events may force NATO to consider such a possibility in the end. With a nebulous goal, stopping the violence and atrocities in Kosovo, and no clear Serbian positions to attack, the best NATO can hope for is that the situation does not deteriorate. Unfortunately, Serbia's brutal reaction to the airstrikes means Kosovo's residents must endure more of those Balkan constants, senseless civilian strife and death, and NATO has a worst-case scenario on its hands. Kosovo is being burned to the ground and hundreds of thousands of refugees are destabilizing the already shaky countries around Yugoslavia. The Serbians are forcing NATO's hand, and a messy, drawn-out conflict appears in the cards. There is public support for this action — no one calls it a war because that would require legislative approvals that NATO countries have not obtained — but NATO leaders must wonder if the support will last long enough to force a solution. The final outcome and the lengths that NATO is forced to take to achieve its goals will set the stage for any other military ventures the alliance undertakes. How the populations in eastern Europe react to events as they unfold will also determine whether future expansion of NATO will happen. Do not underestimate the stress and strain on Hungary and the Czech Republic that a lengthy engagement would have. Yet NATO cannot walk away from Kosovo without reaching an enforceable agreement with Milosevic. Anything less would be an embarrassment for the most powerful military alliance in the world and doom the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. The chances of NATO engaging in a ground war in the Balkans in an increasing possibility. How Russia, China and India react to such a development will be critical to the short, and long term, security of the world.

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